Mgt613 GDB Solution

Total Marks




20 Starting Date

Thursday, November 04, 2010 Closing Date

Monday, November 08, 2010 Status Open Question/Description

Question: Given the weekly demand data, what are the exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2-05 using a=0.10?

Week Demand 0.1 1 980 2 825 3 760 4 650 5

Note: Calculation along with the formula is required for each period's forecast. Students who give answers without calculation will be given low marks/no marks.



Solution:-



Formula for exponential smoothing:

1 1 1 ( ) t t t t F F a A F − − − = + −

Where

Ft = Forecast value for the coming time period

F t−1 = Forecast value in 1 past time period

At−1 = Actual occurrence in the 1 past time period

α = Alpha smoothing constant

Assume F1 =D1

F1 =980+(0.1)(980-980)=980

F2 =980+(0.1)(980-980)=980

F3 =980+(0.1)(825-980)=964.5

F4 =980+(0.1)(760-980)=958

F5=980+(0.1)(650-980)=947



Week Demand 0.1

1 980 980

2 825 980

3 760 964.5

4 650 958

5 947



You may also read lesson 9 page 41 and also take relevant lecture, it will surely help u a lot.